Zukünfte für Forschung und Innovation : Implikationen für Living Labs ; Arbeitspapier im Arbeitspaket 2 (AS 2.3) im INNOLAB Projekt "Living Labs in der Green Economy: realweltliche Innovationsräume für Nutzerintegration und Nachhaltigkeit"

Der Arbeitsschritt 2.3 "Anforderungen an das kooperative Roadmapping" zielt auf die Identifizierung und Operationalisierung von Anforderungen zur Integration von Stakeholdern und Nachhaltigkeitsperspektiven ab. Hierbei wurde zum einen an die Erfahrungen aus anderen kooperativen Roadmapping-Prozessen angeknüpft, zum anderen wurden die Spezifika dieser Roadmapping-Prozesse (u.a. Positionen von Stakeholdern, Thematische Schwerpunkte) herausgearbeitet und in Anforderungen übersetzt. Dieses Arbeitspapier ist ein Ergebnis aus dem Arbeitspaket 2 "Operationalisierung" im Rahmen des Projektes "Living Labs in der Green Economy: Realweltliche Innovationsräume für Nutzerintegration und Nachhaltigkeit" (INNOLAB), das im Rahmen der Sozial-ökologischen Forschung zum Themenschwerpunkt "Nachhaltiges Wirtschaften" vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung gefördert wird

Energy efficiency vision 2050: How do societal changes shape energy efficiency and energy demand?

New societal trends are currently unfolding, such as digitalization, the sharing economy and changing consumer awareness. All of which might highly influence future energy demand and depending on their realization might enhance or counterbalance projected energy efficiency gains. This work is a first attempt to analyse quantitatively how these societal trends might interact with energy efficiency gains. An extensive consultation with European experts identified 14 societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these trends three energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. The EU Reference Scenario (2016) serves as the baseline (BAU). A 'Removing Barriers Scenario' (S1) identifies the prospective decreases in energy demand based on (nearly) cost-effective potentials but excluding major impacts of such new societal trends. Through extensive review of existing studies as well as expert consultations the impacts of new societal trends on all sectors were evaluated in two additional scenarios taking explicitly these trends into account: In scenario 2 the techno-economic potentials are realized, but are counterbalanced by societal trends (e.g. cars might become more energy efficient, but the increased comfort of automation leads to an increase in the kilometres travelled and / or to larger vehicles). Scenario 3 assumes that the Energy Efficiency First Principle is widely established and guides individual and policy decision-making, thus shaping societal trends in a way that facilitates decreasing energy demand. A current study by IEA (2017), based on Wadud et al (2016), shows that by 2050, digitalization might double or decrease transport energy demand by roughly 40 %. This gives a rough idea of the spectrum of possible developments. This paper aims to open up the discussion of how societal trends will shape future energy demand. It explicates that solely relying on unregulated energy efficiency gains to reduce energy demand underestimates the complexity of the interplay of energy demand with changing behaviour through societal trends, while they may also bring about large reduction potentials

Energy efficiency vision 2050: How do societal changes shape energy efficiency and energy demand?

New societal trends are currently unfolding, such as digitalization, the sharing economy and changing consumer awareness. All of which might highly influence future energy demand and depending on their realization might enhance or counterbalance projected energy efficiency gains. This work is a first attempt to analyse quantitatively how these societal trends might interact with energy efficiency gains. An extensive consultation with European experts identified 14 societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these trends three energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. The EU Reference Scenario (2016) serves as the baseline (BAU). A 'Removing Barriers Scenario' (S1) identifies the prospective decreases in energy demand based on (nearly) cost-effective potentials but excluding major impacts of such new societal trends. Through extensive review of existing studies as well as expert consultations the impacts of new societal trends on all sectors were evaluated in two additional scenarios taking explicitly these trends into account: In scenario 2 the techno-economic potentials are realized, but are counterbalanced by societal trends (e.g. cars might become more energy efficient, but the increased comfort of automation leads to an increase in the kilometres travelled and / or to larger vehicles). Scenario 3 assumes that the Energy Efficiency First Principle is widely established and guides individual and policy decision-making, thus shaping societal trends in a way that facilitates decreasing energy demand. A current study by IEA (2017), based on Wadud et al (2016), shows that by 2050, digitalization might double or decrease transport energy demand by roughly 40%. This gives a rough idea of the spectrum of possible developments. This paper aims to open up the discussion of how societal trends will shape future energy demand. It explicates that solely relying on unregulated energy efficiency gains to reduce energy demand underestimates the complexity of the interplay of energy demand with changing behaviour through societal trends, while they may also bring about large reduction potentials

Energy Efficiency Vision 2050: How will new societal trends influence future energy demand in the European countries?

New societal trends are unfolding, such as digitalization, sharing economy and consumer awareness. They will highly influence future energy demand and, depending on their realization, enhance or counteract projected energy efficiency gains. Therefore, these trends have to be accompanied by policies with a strong focus on reducing energy demand (including Energy Efficiency First). This work analyzes quantitatively for all sectors how New Societal Trends interact with energy efficiency (policies). An extensive consultation with European experts identified 12 new societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these, four energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. Using literature review and expert consultations, the impacts on all sectors were evaluated taking these trends explicitly into account. The results show that New Societal Trends can have a crucial impact on future energy demand beyond mere techno-economic potentials. In the best case scenario, “New Trends Efficient”, they can reduce final energy demand by 67% compared to the EU “Baseline” scenario in 2050. While in the “Worst Case” scenario, they could increase final energy demand by 40%. This paper opens up the discussion on how New Societal Trends will shape future energy demand and emphasizes the crucial role of policy-making therein